What is the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)?
The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Ivey PMI) measures month-to-month variation in economic activity as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers from across Canada and is prepared by the Ivey Business School at Western University. It is the most widely watched and utilized indicator of future economic activity in Canada and is closely monitored by supply chain management professionals, economists, analysts, government, and business leaders. Monthly Ivey PMI data is widely reported by all major media outlets.
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How do we know the Ivey PMI is a good indicator?
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) in the United States has published a similar index, called the “Manufacturing PMI” since 1931. The ISM Manufacturing PMI has proven to be a reliable and valuable indicator of current economic activity. Aware of the need for a Canadian equivalent, Ivey launched its PMI on December 7, 2000.
How is the Ivey PMI Index different from the ISM PMI?
The Ivey PMI is different in several respects from the ISM indexes. The Ivey PMI is based on end of month data, covers the complete Canadian economy (including both public and private sectors), and is based on one question only: “Are your purchases (in dollars) higher, the same, or lower than the previous month?”
ISM has a “Manufacturing PMI” and a separate “Services PMI”. These reports are based on mid-month data and are diffusion indexes four (Services PMI) or five (Manufacturing PMI) indicators. Both the Ivey PMI and the ISM Indexes reflect month to month changes and use the 50 percent as the critical reference.
Why is Ivey associated with the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)?
The Ivey Business School has been a leader in management education in Canada for more than 100 years. It was the first School in Canada to teach purchasing and supply management as a standard credit course in its curriculum. The School has taught and researched supply management for more than 75 years.
Who is responsible for the Ivey PMI?
Professor Fraser Johnson, Leenders Purchasing Management Association of Canada Chair at the Ivey Business School, is in charge of the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index.
How is the Ivey PMI calculated?
The Ivey PMI includes both the public and private sectors and is based on month end data. Ivey PMI panel members indicate whether activity is higher than, the same as, or lower than the previous month across the following five categories: purchases, employment, inventories, supplier deliveries and prices. The difference between the higher and lower percentages, either positive or negative, is divided by two. The resulting number is added to or subtracted from 50 to give the monthly index number. A reading above 50 shows an increase while an index below 50 indicates a decrease. A figure above 50 shows an increase while below 50 shows a decrease.
Members of the Ivey PMI panel have been carefully selected by location and industry sector to match the Canadian economy as a whole. The most recent 24 months of data are available on the Ivey PMI website, which provides both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted data (http://iveypmi.uwo.ca).
Example 1: Increase in purchases over previous month
|
Monthly Percentages |
|
|
Higher |
26% |
|
Same |
62% |
|
Lower |
12% |
|
Ivey PMI = 50 + (26-12)/2 = 57 |
|
Example 2: Same purchases as previous month
|
Monthly Percentages |
|
|
Higher |
20% |
|
Same |
60% |
|
Lower |
20% |
|
Ivey PMI = 50 + (20-20)/2 = 50 |
|
Example 3: Lower purchases than previous month
|
Monthly Percentages |
|
|
Higher |
10% |
|
Same |
71% |
|
Lower |
19% |
|
Ivey PMI = 50 + (10-19)/2 = 45.5 |
|
How is the Ivey PMI adjusted for seasonality?
1. Seasonal adjustment is the estimation of the seasonal component, followed by its removal from time series data (US Census Bureau, 2010). The purpose of seasonally adjusting data is to produce a series which is more straightforward to: i) analyze at consecutive time intervals and ii) compare to the movements of other series.
2. The United States Census Bureau’s X12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Program was used to evaluate Ivey’s PMI and other data series. The X12-ARIMA programs incorporates the majority of the time series statistics and “is used for all official seasonal adjustments produced by the U. S. Census Bureau” (US Census Bureau, 2010). Additional information on this program, including some resources for new users, can be found on the U.S. Census Bureau website.
When is the Ivey PMI released?
The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is released on this website on the third or fourth working day of each month at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Standard Time.
December 4 is the final release date for 2025.
Index Release Dates in 2026 are: January 7, February 6, March 6, April 7, May 6, June 5, July 7, August 7, September 4, October 6, November 6, December 4
How can I access the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)?
The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index when available can be accessed online through its website (https://www.iveypmi.ca).
Whom can I contact with additional questions about the PMI?
If you have additional questions about the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) please contact Professor Fraser Johnson at fjohnson@ivey.ca.